Click this command to run a Risk Analysis or use the options in the drop-down menu to specify the risk analysis settings. You will need to save the workbook before running the analysis.
Simulation
| Field | Description |
|---|
| Number of Iterations
|
You can set the number of simulation options. While 1,000 iterations is adequate for most schedules with an order of magnitude of 1,000 activities, you have the option to change the specific number of iterations.
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| Complete Automatically
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If you select this command, the risk analysis runs until one of the following occurs:
- The number of iterations specified in the
Number of Iterations field is complete.
- The mean value of the project remaining duration does not vary by more than the percentage selected in the
Automatic Accuracy field for at least the number of iterations specified in the
Convergence Iterations field.
This setting is useful if you want a high risk analysis accuracy but at the same time you don't want to run too many iterations. For example, setting the iteration value to 10000 will give you a better accuracy but may be excessive, depending on the circumstances, because at a certain point the model will not continue to gain much accuracy and you will just be wasting time.
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| Automatic Accuracy
|
Select the percentage accuracy for the risk analysis to complete automatically. Acumen will run iterations until it achieves this accuracy.
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| Convergence Iterations
|
Specify the number of iterations over which the accuracy must be met. For example, if Convergence Iterations = 100 and Accuracy = 1%, the risk analysis process won't stop until the mean for the last 100 iterations is within 1% of each other.
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Scenarios
Multiple scenarios can be generated in Acumen Risk. All scenarios can be applied to the base risk model or used in conjunction with creating alternate scenarios.
| Field | Description |
|---|
| Uncertainty Only (No Risk Events)
|
The risk model only takes into account uncertainty and ignores any risk event impact.
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| Uncertainty and Risk Events (No Mitigation)
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The risk model accounts for uncertainty and risk events but excludes any mitigating impacts.
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| Uncertainty and Risk Events (Mitigates, Excluding Overhead)
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The risk model accounts for uncertainty and risk events in their mitigated state but ignores the cost/schedule overhead of achieving this mitigation.
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| Uncertainty and Risk Events (Mitigated, Including Overhead)
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The risk model accounts for uncertainty and risk events in their mitigated state and takes into account the cost/schedule overhead of achieving this mitigation.
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Interaction
Run a risk analysis in one of these modes.
| Field | Description |
|---|
| Automatic
|
Runs the analysis without screen interaction. Benefits from multi-threading (very fast).
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| Interactive
|
Provides real-time screen updates during the analysis.
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| Diagnose
|
Allows you to manually step through each iteration.
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Repeatability
| Field | Description |
|---|
| Use Fixed Seed
|
Acumen Risk includes the option to use repeatable risk analysis giving the exact same results. This is achieved through fixed seed. This option is on by default.
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| Seed Value
|
The seed value number corresponds to the "group" of random numbers that are used for the risk analysis. If you want to run the analysis and get the same result each time, or you want to have another user run the same analysis that you ran, use the same seed number and confirm that
Used Fixed Seed is selected. If you change the seed value, the analysis will run using a different group of random numbers.
|
Activity Correlation
| Field | Description |
|---|
| Use correlation to link activities
|
Correlate uncertainty outcomes between activities that have been previously set up via the correlate command.
|
| By setting a correlation, you estimate how closely the uncertainty distribution of one activity is followed by others. Negative correlation means that if one value is sampled high, the other tends to be sampled low and vice versa for positive correlation.
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Hierarchical Risk Models
Use correlation to overcome the Central Limit Theorem.
| Field | Description |
|---|
| Correlation Coefficient
|
You can use correlation as a means of overcoming the Central Limit Theorem on activities that have been previously set up via the CLT check box.
|
| By setting the correlation coefficient, the uncertainty distributions of the checked activities follow the values of their summaries in a similar manner as they would when using manual correlation.
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Cost/Schedule Integration
| Field | Description |
|---|
| Account for cost of schedule risk impact
|
Use this command when running cost risk models and should be enabled if the impact of schedule delay is to be taken into account in the cost model.
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